5 Things We Are Watching This Week

GAR Capital Research Team

As we kick off another trading week, several macro and technical factors are shaping the market landscape. From government funding negotiations to seasonal tailwinds and key support levels across indices, investors have plenty to monitor. Below are the five key watchpoints and actionable strategies for the week ahead.

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1. Government Shutdown & Market Sentiment

Congress is moving toward a potential bipartisan deal to avert a government shutdown. Even a temporary resolution could lift short-term sentiment and support a rebound in equities after the recent pullback.

What to Do:

• Track political headlines closely — funding updates can quickly move markets.
• “Buy the dip” opportunities may emerge if optimism builds around a resolution.
• Expect volatility until a deal is finalized, but sentiment remains constructive.

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2. Technical Support Levels: NASDAQ & S&P 500

Both major indices are showing resilience at critical technical levels.

• NASDAQ: Triple bottom setup forming, with the 50-day moving average providing strong support.
• S&P 500: Bounced directly off its 50-day MA, closing Friday with bullish momentum.

This alignment signals healthy consolidation rather than weakness.

What to Do:

• Watch the 50-day moving average on both indices as key support zones.
• “Buy the dip” setups near these levels have historically offered strong reward potential.
• Maintain risk discipline — conditions can shift quickly, but the outlook remains positive into late November.

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3. Historical Seasonal Strength: November–December

The end of the year has historically favored the bulls. The S&P 500 has finished higher in November 13 of the past 14 years, with combined November–December gains in 16 consecutive years.

• Average November return: +3%
• Nov–Dec combined average: +4.9%
• Probability of gains in Nov–Dec: 91%

When the S&P is up double digits year-to-date by November, the odds of continued upside increase substantially.

What to Do:

• Maintain exposure to broad market indices during this favorable seasonal window.
• Use small pullbacks as opportunities to add positions.
• Be mindful of overextensions, but historical data strongly supports a bullish bias.

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4. Dollar, Gold, and Cross-Asset Impact

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is facing resistance at the 100–100.40 zone — its 200-day moving average. A sustained rejection below that level is typically bullish for risk assets and commodities like gold.

Gold remains range-bound between $3,916 support and $4,060 resistance. A breakout above the upper bound could trigger renewed upside momentum, while a break below support would likely invite short-term weakness.

What to Do:

• Watch for dollar softness tied to the potential government deal.
• Gold traders can look for confirmation above $4,060 before re-entering long positions.
• The upcoming Veterans Day bond market closure may reduce liquidity, increasing volatility in currencies and metals.

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5. Buy-the-Dip Opportunities in AI Stocks

AI names remain the market’s leadership group, and recent pullbacks could offer attractive entry points.

• Palantir (PLTR): Testing the 50-day MA — potential buy-the-dip zone.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Rebounding off its 50-day MA — momentum returning.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Below its 50-day MA with a possible double top near $550; key support levels: $491 and $470.

AI remains distinct from broader tech — these names often outperform during rebounds.

What to Do:

• Focus dip-buying on leading AI stocks rather than broad tech.
• $470–$491 for MSFT, and 50-day MA levels for NVDA and PLTR remain high-probability entry areas.
• Manage size carefully as earnings season rotation continues.

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✅ Final Thoughts: Five Key Watchpoints for the Week

1. Market Momentum — track sentiment shifts and volume confirmation.
2. Support Levels — identify key zones and plan dip entries strategically.
3. Moving Averages — watch for short-term and long-term crossovers.
4. Sector Rotation — AI, semiconductors, and industrials show resilience.
5. Macro Events — stay alert to headlines that may influence liquidity.

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✅ Action Plan

• Stay proactive and disciplined in trade management.
• Keep exposure aligned with market structure and seasonality.
• Use volatility as an opportunity, not a deterrent.

Let’s make it a great week — stay sharp, stay patient, and let price action guide the way.