Summary
As AI adoption accelerates, companies are cutting jobs and expanding profits — a trend that could lead to a labor recession even while the stock market surges. In this GAR Capital Macro Watch, we break down how automation is reshaping the economy, why the Fed can't stop it, and how traders can stay ahead by following the money. From Microsoft to Chevron, the message is clear: the future is lean, fast, and AI-powered.
Market Movers
No market movers this week..
📚 Deep Dive 📚
🧠 GAR Capital Macro Watch: AI Boom, Labor Bust?
Let’s talk about what’s really going on beneath the surface.
While the mainstream clowns are still screaming about soft landings and job creation, the actual trend unfolding is something far more important - and maybe even irreversible:
📉 Companies are cutting jobs
💰 Margins are expanding
🤖 AI is replacing labor
📈 Stocks are rising
Think about it:
• Microsoft just saved $500 million using AI while laying people off
• 35% of their new code is written by machines — not humans
• Chevron just slashed 20% of its global workforce to streamline ops and save $3 billion
• Hubs are moving overseas. Jobs are getting vaporized
🧠 The Big Idea
We could see a labor recession while the stock market hits all-time highs
Why? Because corporate profits will be fine - hell, they’ll be better:
➡ Lower payroll
➡ Faster turnaround
➡ Higher margins
➡ AI makes it possible
⚠️ The Paradox
The Fed can’t force companies to hire - They can only print more money
🧩 This Creates a Strange Cycle:
1️⃣ Fewer jobs
2️⃣ Stronger corporate profits
3️⃣ Stocks keep running
4️⃣ Liquidity gets hoarded
5️⃣ Fewer hiring needs
6️⃣ More printing
Eventually… what?
🤔 Universal Basic Income?
🧍♂️ Too many workers, not enough jobs?
📉 Deflation despite tech-fueled profit growth?
That’s not a conspiracy - that’s logic. And we’re watching it in real time.
💼 So What’s Our Job as Traders?
💡 Follow the money
💡 Position early
💡 Hedge the labor side with asset exposure
💡 Stay informed while they distract you with soft landing narratives
We trade the market we see - not the one we wish for
This is your think tank. Stay sharp! – Carlos 🧠 CEO | GAR Capital
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