Bitcoin Just Broke the Floor — Now Comes the Part Most Cycles Can’t Avoid

Why This Move Matters More Than the Headlines

Over the past several sessions, something important has unfolded across crypto, metals, and broader risk assets — and it isn’t random.

Bitcoin has now cleanly broken the $70,000 support level, a zone that previously acted as both psychological and structural support. Once that floor gave way, the market shifted from controlled selling into liquidity-driven price discovery.

This matters because Bitcoin is still a leverage-dominated market.

When support breaks:

• Stops get triggered
• Margin calls follow
• Forced selling accelerates
• Correlations spike (crypto, gold, silver all fall together)

That’s not a “fundamental collapse.”
That’s a liquidity event.

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What the Charts Are Telling Us

On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin is now showing:

• A broken uptrend line
• A developing head-and-shoulders bearish structure
• A confirmed loss of the $70,000 range

From a pure technical standpoint, this opens the door to a measured move toward the next major zones of interest.

Key Levels to Watch

• $50,000 area → aligns with the 50-month moving average
• $30,000 area → historical washout / liquidation zone

That $30K level isn’t a prediction — it’s a risk reference.

Historically, Bitcoin cycles include:

• 60%–80% drawdowns from peak to trough
• Violent liquidations once leverage becomes one-sided
• Capitulation phases where even “strong hands” get tested

If price were to flush toward that zone, it would likely represent a classic cycle drawdown, not the end of Bitcoin.

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Liquidity Is the Real Driver Right Now

What’s important to understand is why everything is moving together.

We are currently in a liquidity crunch:

• The U.S. dollar is firm
• Treasury yields remain elevated
• Risk capital is being pulled back, not added

Until interest rates — particularly the U.S. 10-year yield — move meaningfully lower (ideally below 4%), it’s difficult to attract fresh speculative capital into high-beta assets like crypto.

That’s why you’re seeing:

• Crypto selling
• Gold and silver selling
• Correlated risk unwinds

This is not selective fear — it’s systemic positioning getting unwound.

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Historical Context: This Is How Cycles Work

Every Bitcoin cycle has this phase.

Big upside phases are followed by:

• Excess leverage
• Overconfidence
• Narrow risk tolerance

Eventually, price finds the level where leverage gets cleared.

That’s uncomfortable — but it’s also necessary.

Once forced selling exhausts itself:

• Volatility compresses
• Weak hands are gone
• Long-term opportunity improves dramatically

That’s how prior cycles reset.

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Our Take at GAR Capital

This is not a time for emotional decisions.

If you’re over-levered, this environment is unforgiving.
If you’re patient and liquid, this is how future opportunity gets created.

We view this move as:

• A liquidity-driven reset
• A cycle drawdown, not a failure
• A reminder that position sizing matters more than conviction

Markets don’t reward being early — they reward being disciplined.

We’ll continue monitoring:

• Yield behavior
• Dollar strength
• Liquidation pressure
• Structural support levels

As for price levels - $50,000 and $30,000 are appealing dip buys for sure. Stay locked inside our discord and we’ll guide you through it step by step — without noise, hype, or panic.

— GAR Capital

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