Daily Market Recap – Gold Pops, PLTR Puts Win, Markets Chop Into Close

Despite volatile price action, GAR secured gains in Gold and closed two green options trades. The rest of the day was all about discipline and protecting capital.

Daily Market Recap – May 21, 2025

Source: Bloomberg unless noted

Bond Market Turmoil

• Japan’s JGB market saw renewed pressure overnight—20Y yields hit their highest level since October 2000.
• In the U.S., the 20Y Treasury auction was challenging but not disastrous.
• The recent U.S. credit downgrade continues to weigh on investor confidence—30Y yields surged back above 5.00%, the highest since October 2023.

Swap spreads collapsed, flashing fresh red flags for bond market stability.

• Yield curve is steepening, with the 2s30s spread widening sharply.
• The 3M-10Y curve is now the steepest it’s been since mid-February.

Stock Market Reaction

• Surging yields triggered a broad market selloff—major indices dropped sharply below pre-downgrade levels.
• Small caps led the decline.
• The Magnificent 7 flipped hard from green to red.
• AAPL fell for the 6th straight session, dragged down by the Jony Ive/OpenAI acquisition news.

Sentiment & Positioning

• Retail short sellers were noticeably absent for the second day—shorted names aren’t bouncing.
• Trade policy uncertainty hit its lowest level since February, though ironically due to growing concerns over fiscal mismanagement.

Macro & Commodities

• Global macro data surprised to the upside, hitting the highest level since May 2024.
• Oil prices whipsawed—up 3% on CNN headlines about possible Israeli strikes on Iran, then sharply down on large inventory builds and broader market derisking.
• The U.S. dollar fell sharply—now nearing YTD lows, similar to September 2024.
• Gold rebounded above $3,300.
• But once again, Bitcoin BTC outshined gold as the market’s go-to uncertainty hedge.

Crypto Spotlight

• Bitcoin hit a fresh all-time high of $109,500 before pulling back as equities slid.
• Speculation rising: Could BTC hit $180K by August as liquidity expands?

What Did GAR Do Today?

Futures Recap

• ✅ Gold Futures (GC) Long @ 3305
• TP1 Hit @ 3315
• +10 points / +$500 (based on 5 MGC contracts) Trade triggered Tuesday evening at 6:37 PM EST

Outside of that gold win, today was all about discipline. We saw choppy price action across indexes with little follow-through, and instead of forcing trades, we sat back, protected capital, and preserved our edge. That’s how long-term consistency is built.

Options Recap

Closed Trades:

• 💰 HOOD May 23 65c ITM: +40%
• 💰 PLTR May 23 125p ITM: +40%

After days of being patient, we finally got two wins on the board. The PLTR put paid off nicely as the market weakness gave us the exit we were waiting for. We added some risk on a few names as well and although they are red with the closing hour drop, we believe they are solid trades going into next week.

• 🟡 HIMS May 30 70c: –56%
• 🟡 HOOD May 30 70c: –21% (hit +20% intraday before fading)
• 🟡 TSLA May 30 400c: –53%
• 🟡 NVDA May 23 $140c: –92% (we were pushing, then got rug pulled)
• ☠️ AAPL May 23 225c: Likely RIP

We took our two winners and didn’t force anything beyond that. Market drop helped us capitalize on PLTR, which had been teasing us for days. We see today’s flush as a gift to reset — and we’re looking ahead to Turnaround Thursday, where dip buyers may step up to close out the week strong. Currently sitting at 20 wins in a row (NVDA & AAPL look to break our streak on Friday thus far but let's see if we can get some more Wins on the board tomorrow and Friday!)

🔮 Forward Outlook

• With yields rising fast and swap spreads diving, Deutsche Bank now sees a real chance the Fed could reintroduce QE sooner than expected.

Stay frosty out there! See you all tomorrow. - Carlos G.