Today, the U.S. and U.K. announced a landmark trade deal. QQQ, IWM, and XLF all rallied, while the VIX slid lower. GAR Capital delivered another standout day with wins on PLTR and UAL calls, plus a solid gold trade in futures. A bullish session powered by headlines and sharp execution.

Daily Market Recap May 8, 2025

A Wall of Worry Gets Climbed. Investor Sentiment Dives, But Risk Assets Push Higher.

Markets delivered a choppy, event-driven session as bullish economic data and systematic buying clashed with persistent retail pessimism and late-day sell pressure. Here’s what unfolded:

Here is how major ETF's performed today:

• QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): +1.03%
• IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): +1.90%
• XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund): +0.83%
• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): -4.54%

Bearish Sentiment… Again

Investor sentiment remains in the dumps, now clocking 11 straight weeks of bearish dominance. Over 50% of surveyed investors continue to express negative market views - a historically contrarian signal when paired with underlying strength.

Systematic Buying Surges

Despite the gloom, systematic investors have stepped in aggressively, buying $100 billion in global equities over the past 10 days. This quant-driven flow has supported price action even in the face of macro uncertainty.

U.S.–UK Strike Landmark Trade Deal

The U.S. and U.K. just struck a game-changing trade deal. Both sides are slashing tariffs - cars, steel, beef, ethanol, and more are on the table. The UK’s also set to buy $10B worth of Boeing jets. It’s not final yet, but markets loved it initially soaring on the headline the night before and throughout the day, but fell into the close.

President Trump via Truth Social:

Economic Data Lifts Risk Assets

Fresh optimism on jobless claims and improved tone in global trade talks lit a fire under risk appetite early in the day. Stocks, crypto, oil, and the dollar all surged on the news.

Stocks Fade Into the Close

Markets rallied hard out of the gate on trade deal news and positive economic data, but momentum faded late in the session. Profit-taking and macro headline fatigue dragged major indexes off their highs, with a noticeable decline into the close tuning power hour into sour hour.

Tech Holds the Line

Mega-Cap Tech (aka the Mag7) continued to show relative strength. While the broader market faded, tech held firm and finished the week essentially unchanged, highlighting their defensive leadership during volatile stretches.

💹 Cross-Asset Moves:

• Dollar: Hit one-week highs on strong data and hawkish rate repricing.
• Bonds: Sold off, pushing the 5-year Treasury yield up to 4.00%.
• Gold: Pulled back to $3,300, giving up recent gains as yields surged.
• Oil: Rebounded modestly, stabilizing after recent weakness.

₿ Crypto Breakout

• Bitcoin: Broke above $100,000 for the first time since February.
• Ethereum: Notched its best single-day gain of +20%, biggest daily jump since November 2022, as investor enthusiasm returned to the digital asset space - risk ON.

How did GAR do today?

• PLTR calls? ✅ Locked in 45%.
• UAL calls? ✅ Took profits at 45% - and the runner is soaring over +120%!
• Futures gang? ✅ Nailed another gold trade from the night session through the U.S. open for a total net of 10 pts.
• We also have some new risk open for next week in options - and currently getting ready for a futures trade for tonight!

UAL Trade: Member Profits: Futures Recap:

Another day, another few wins. Precision. Patience. Profits - that’s the GAR way.

⚖️ Key Takeaways:

• Sentiment remains deeply bearish, but flows and data are bullish.
• Tech is quietly outperforming amid broader uncertainty.
• Cross-asset movement suggests a market repositioning, not retreat.
• Eyes remain on Treasury yields, inflation updates, and next week’s earnings for direction.

Lock into our discord for more updates as we continue navigating the noise and focusing on opportunities that align with both data and discipline. Either way - we win!