Summary
April’s PPI fell the most since 2009, retail sales growth stalled, and unemployment claims held steady, pointing to a cooling economy with stable labor conditions.
Market Recap
Market Movers
- 📈 US UoM Consumer Sentiment: May 16, 2025
📚 Deep Dive 📚
🌍 Global Spotlight: Trump Visits UAE, Geopolitics Heat Up
President Trump touched down in Dubai today for high-level meetings with UAE officials and Saudi leadership. Discussions centered around expanding AI infrastructure, trade cooperation, and regional defense partnerships. Outcome? UAE to invest $1.2 Trillion in US over the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, tensions in Europe escalated after reports surfaced of Russia moving an additional 640,000 troops closer to Ukraine’s northern border — reigniting global security concerns (this has to be verified as it is just a rumor as of yet) but markets did into the close after this headline came out.
📊 Economic Data Today:
Producer Price Index (PPI): April's PPI fell by 0.5%, marking the largest monthly decline since 2009, primarily due to a 0.7% drop in service prices. Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.4%, slightly below expectations, suggesting easing inflationary pressures at the wholesale level.
Retail Sales: Retail sales in April rose by a modest 0.1%, a significant slowdown from March's 1.7% increase. This deceleration is attributed to consumers front-loading purchases in anticipation of new tariffs, leading to reduced spending in April.
Unemployment Claims: Initial jobless claims remained steady at 229,000 for the week ending May 10, indicating a stable labor market.
💰 Earnings Highlight: Walmart Surprises Wall Street
Walmart WMT had a strong start to 2025, reporting $165.6 billion in revenue for the first quarter — up 2.5% — and earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations. Sales at U.S. stores rose 4.5%, and online shopping continued to boom with 21% growth. But there’s a catch: Walmart warned that prices will be going up soon because of new tariffs from President Trump on imports from China and Latin America. The company’s leaders said these tariffs are too large for retailers to absorb, so shoppers should expect noticeable price hikes starting later this month. Still, Walmart believes it will gain more customers as people look for value during tough economic times.
Smart Money Moves?
Michael Burry, the famed investor behind "The Big Short," just liquidated his entire portfolio in Q1 2025 — with one big exception: Estée Lauder ($EL). Burry added 100,000 shares of EL, making it 50% of his portfolio. Meanwhile, he completely exited positions in major Chinese tech names like Alibaba ($BABA), Baidu ($BIDU), JD.com ($JD), and Pinduoduo ($PDD) — signaling a major retreat from China. He also sold out of healthcare stocks like Molina ($MOH), HCA ($HCA), and Oscar Health ($OSCR), and dumped positions in Bruker ($BRKR), VF Corp ($VFC), and Canada Goose ($GOOS). In total, Burry sold 100% of his holdings in 13 companies, cutting exposure across tech, healthcare, retail, and insurance — leaving Estée Lauder as his sole bet going forward.
📊 Markets at a Glance
- S&P 500: +0.41%
- Nasdaq: -0.1%
- Dow Jones: –0.5%
- Bitcoin BTCUSD : +1.1%
- Ethereum ETHUSD : +0.8%
- XRP XRPUSD : –0.5%
- Oil USOIL : –1.2%
- Gold GC : +1.6%
Markets remained relatively stable despite global headlines.
💼 How Did GAR Do Today?
Another productive day inside the GAR Capital trading rooms:
Futures Team
- Gold short: Nailed +30 points overnight. Our stop got hit, but the trade kept running and eventually tagged TP4.
- S&P (ES): +10 points captured intraday — strong momentum call = strong profits.
- The night is young so stay tuned for the next futures trade!
Options Team
- Entered two setups today: NVDA and PLTR for next week expiry. (Bullish or bearish? You’ll have to join to find out 😉)
- One carryover position in play (AAPL).
No locked profits today — we’re set up and ready for Friday and next week.
Strategy. Discipline. Performance. That’s how we move at GAR Capital. Let’s finish the week strong!