Summary
The September–October 2025 Macro Playbook highlights our tactical view for the next 60 days. While tech remains stretched and vulnerable to profit-taking, energy, banks, healthcare, small caps, and gold stand out as bullish opportunities supported by tax cuts and Fed easing. We expect volatility to spike into October before markets rebound, making this an ideal period to stay tactical, manage risk, and prepare for buy-the-dip opportunities.
Market Movers
- 📈 JOLTS Job Openings: Sep 3, 2025
- 📈 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Sep 4, 2025
- 📈 ISM Services PMI: Sep 4, 2025
- 📈 Non-Farm Employment Change: Sep 5, 2025
- 📈 Unemployment Rate: Sep 5, 2025
📚 Deep Dive 📚
GAR Capital Macro Playbook
60-Day Strategic Outlook | September–October 2025
Looking Back: July–August Recap
At the start of Q3, we laid out a two-phase playbook for July and August READ IT HERE. Here’s how our calls played out:
✅ What Worked
Phase 1: Risk-On (July)
- Staying long equities paid off. Tech and Consumer Discretionary ripped higher through early July, and banks kept pace.
- Our call to sell volatility was spot on — VIX bled lower as the market pressed all-time highs, creating strong premium capture.
Phase 2: Tactical Caution (Late July–August)
- Rotation into gold and defensive sectors lined up well with the late-summer chop. Gold broke out as the dollar weakened.
- Banks continued to benefit from expectations of lower rates and regulatory easing.
❌ What Didn’t
- Tech & Discretionary Fades – While we expected profit-taking, the “Mag 7” strength remained more resilient than projected. They still carried the bulk of the index higher, showing that concentration risk is alive and well.
- FOMC Inflection Call – We expected a classic “sell the news” on the July 30 rate cut. Instead, equities largely absorbed it and ground higher, helped by tax cut optimism.
🎯 The Wildcard That Hit
- Tax Cuts – We flagged the possibility in July as a liquidity catalyst. That tailwind materialized and helped extend the rally even as earnings season wrapped up.
Bottom line for July–August:
Our risk-on early, tactical caution later framework worked. The sector rotation and gold positioning were winners. The only miss was underestimating how sticky tech leadership remains.
Looking Ahead: September–October Playbook
With that recap in hand, here’s how we’re positioning for the next 60 days:
Market Context
- Stocks remain expensive — valuations are hovering near dot-com bubble levels.
- Concentration risk persists — the Mag 7 dominate EPS and market performance.
- Tailwinds remain strong — rate cuts + tax cuts support the bull market into year-end.
Our Base Case
- September: Fed cuts 25bps (94% odds priced).
- October: Another 25bps cut likely.
- Inflation: Stays sticky above 2%.
- Labor: Unemployment steady, job growth softer.
- Markets: Pullback into October, then recovery.
- Volatility: Expect a VIX spike during the pullback.
Bullish Focus Areas
- Energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) – Inflation hedge + lower rates support upside.
- Banks/Financials – Regulatory easing is a tailwind.
- Healthcare (UNH, HUM, XLV) – Buffett’s UNH buy reinforces our thesis.
- Small Caps (IWM) – Low rates = cheaper liquidity, growth kicker.
- Gold – Dollar weakness continues to support a breakout.
Bearish Tactical Plays
- Overvalued Tech (Mag 7) – Ripe for a pullback post-earnings. Best approach: sell upside calls, collect premium.
- Expect seasonal profit-taking through October. Build a buy-the-dip list now for re-entry into quality names.
Final Word
The July–August playbook taught us two lessons:
- Stay tactical — rotations matter.
- Respect leadership — Mag 7 strength is still a market driver.
For September–October, the framework is clear: expect a pullback, don’t panic, and prepare to buy dips into supportive policy (rate cuts + tax cuts).
GAR Capital Macro Desk
“Stay tactical. Read the shift.”