GAR Capital’s 60-Day Market Playbook: How to Trade Q3 2025 Like a Pro

GAR Capital reveals its 60-day trading playbook for Q3 2025, outlining a phased strategy built around earnings season, Fed policy shifts, and a potential tax cut rally. Tactical insights you can act on now.

📈 GAR Capital Macro Playbook

60-Day Strategic Outlook | July–August 2025

As we kick off Q3, we’re navigating a market at all-time highs with liquidity, earnings season, and Fed policy all on deck. Here’s how we’re positioning over the next 60 days:

🗓 Phase 1: July 1–29 — Risk-On Regime

🔹 Bias: Stay long equities

🔹 Focus Sectors: • 🚀 Tech • 🚀 Consumer Discretionary • 🚀 Banks

🔹 Instruments & Strategy: • 📈 Long call options • 📉 Sell puts • 🔒 Long index futures (S&P 500, Nasdaq) • 🧯 Short volatility via VIX puts or short VIX futures

🔹 Short Exposure: • Gold • Defensive sectors (Utilities, Staples)

🔹 Narrative: With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pressing all-time highs, the market remains in expansion mode. Volatility premiums are elevated — giving us a chance to fade fear, sell vol, and ride the risk-on trend higher.

🏦 FOMC Inflection Point: July 30

Base Case: 25 bps rate cut

Expected Market Reaction: A classic “sell the news” setup as traders pre-position into the Jackson Hole Summit. Caution is warranted here.

📉 Phase 2: Late July – August — Tactical Caution

🔹 Bias: Begin to de-risk equities

🔹 Positioning Shift: • Rotate into Gold and Defensives • Maintain neutral-to-bearish bias on S&P and Nasdaq • Continue to favor Banks as beneficiaries of lower rates

🔹 Sector Strategy: • Fade Tech & Discretionary • Lock in quick wins

🔹 Macro Theme: Earnings comps post-tariffs, seasonal chop, and policy uncertainty define this window.

⚖️ Wildcard Scenario: Tax Cut Passed

If a tax cut passes in Congress...

🚨 Expect: • 🚀 Liquidity flood • 💸 Mass rotation from money markets into equities • 📈 Risk-on rally across stocks, commodities, and credit

🧭 Dollar Watch

Reassess USD trajectory by August as we approach the decade-long uptrend support zone. A breakdown here could reshape global positioning.

🔭 Final Word

The real edge isn’t just knowing what’s next — it’s positioning correctly before the crowd.

This is a market that rewards traders who lean into momentum early and rotate before rotation becomes consensus.

📍 GAR Capital Macro Desk "Stay tactical. Read the shift."

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