GAR Capital – Top 10 Picks of 2025

Year-End Review & Outlook

Performance Review as of December 16, 2025
Benchmark comparison: January 2, 2025 prices

---

1. QBTS – Quantum Computing

YTD Performance: ~+155% (peaked near +300%)

Quantum computing emerged as one of the highest-beta, risk-on themes of 2025. In a capital-starved technology environment, money flowed aggressively toward future-facing computing solutions. As AI continues to increase demand for processing power, quantum computing represents the next frontier—promising massive gains in efficiency across commercial, military, and civilian applications.

While still in its infancy and far from mass adoption, we correctly identified the demand inflection point in December 2024, positioning ahead of the crowd. Volatility has been extreme, but that is the cost of entry in early-stage innovation.

Our Call:

• Rating: Hold (long-term)
• Strategy: Accumulate on extreme volatility or market-wide selloffs
• Key Support: $20
• 2026 Price Target: $40

---

2. NLR – Nuclear Energy ETF

Theme: Energy demand & AI infrastructure

Energy was a dominant macro theme in 2025, driven by data centers, AI workloads, and expanding technological infrastructure. Nuclear emerged as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels, attracting significant investment flows.

That said, valuations have become stretched. Three of the ETF’s five largest holdings trade at elevated P/E ratios, while two lack positive earnings entirely. While the theme remains intact, expectations may be running ahead of fundamentals.

Our Call:

• Rating: Hold / Wait for pullback
• Support Buy Zone: ~$110
• 2026 Price Target: $150
• Outlook: Strong year behind us, more muted growth ahead

---

3. TKO – Live Entertainment

YTD Performance: ~+47%

Live entertainment made a powerful comeback in 2025. WWE and UFC continue to dominate alternative entertainment, bolstered by new distribution deals with Netflix and Paramount. Digital reach and global distribution are firmly established.

Revenue growth is solid, though EPS still needs improvement. At ~34x forward earnings, valuation remains reasonable given guidance and growth prospects. Technically, the stock is breaking out above $205, signaling momentum into the new year.

Our Call:

• Rating: Bullish
• 2026 Price Target: $235
• Outlook: Breakout potential from a rising channel with added catalysts

---

4. HIMS – Healthcare (High Beta)

YTD Performance: ~+44% (previously triple-digit gains)

HIMS experienced extreme volatility in 2025, trading in a wide $25–$75 range. While currently testing key support near $35, the company remains profitable with solid revenue and EPS growth.

Valuation remains elevated at ~60x forward earnings, making this a higher-risk healthcare play. Among peers, however, HIMS remains the better-quality trade.

Our Call:

• Rating: Neutral / Hold
• Action: Take profits; reassess if $20 is reached
• 2026 Price Target: $45 (near the 20-DMA)

---

5. NVDA – Semiconductors

YTD Performance: ~+28%

NVIDIA remains the cornerstone of the AI economy. If you own an index or growth fund, you own NVDA. Despite constant media noise, the fundamentals remain exceptional.

At ~23x forward earnings, NVDA is still inexpensive relative to its growth profile and guidance. The stock is forming a bull flag on the daily chart, suggesting continuation potential.

Our Call:

• Rating: Buy on strength
• Accumulation Zone: Above $195
• 2026 Price Target: $220 (new all-time highs)

---

6. TSLA – Technology & Autonomy

YTD Performance: ~+26%

Tesla remains a technology company that happens to sell cars. The growth narrative is driven by autonomy, robotics, and the robotaxi vision. Add in potential SpaceX IPO exposure and Elon Musk’s incentive-heavy compensation structure, and alignment with shareholders remains strong.

The stock has been expensive for years—and likely will remain so. Technically, a double-top breakout favors continued upside.

Our Call:

• Rating: Bullish
• 2026 Price Target: $530

---

7. MSFT – The Computing Fortress

YTD Performance: ~+13%

Microsoft continues to dominate enterprise computing via Azure, Office 365, gaming, and its strategic OpenAI investment. While OpenAI’s cash burn presents risks, MSFT appears positioned ahead of competitors with Copilot fully embedded into its ecosystem.

At ~25x forward earnings, valuation is fair for a company with fortress-level fundamentals. Rotation within the Mag 7 could cap near-term returns but supports dip-buy opportunities.

Our Call:

• Rating: Buy on dips
• Key Support: $450
• 2026 Price Target: $500

---

8. AMZN – Growth at a Value Price

YTD Performance: ~+1%

Amazon has quietly traded like a value stock despite double-digit revenue growth and strong EPS expansion (~29% in 2025). Investors get e-commerce, AWS, and logistics all in one name.

While valuation is reasonable at ~28x forward earnings, we prefer lower prices given potential Mag 7 rotation.

Our Call:

• Rating: Accumulate lower
• Ideal Entry: ~$200
• 2026 Price Target: $230

---

9. DKNG – Sports Betting

YTD Performance: ~+1.6%

DraftKings faced headwinds from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate nationwide without state-by-state legal constraints. DKNG remains boxed out of major markets such as California and Texas.

The stock trades in a longer-term downward channel, with further downside risk if adoption stalls.

Our Call:

• Rating: Sell / Take profits
• 2026 Price Target: $20

---

10. Bitcoin (BTC)

2025 High: ~$127,000
Current: ~$87,800

Bitcoin remains the ultimate barometer of liquidity and risk appetite. After breaking key trend support, BTC appears range-bound, with potential downside toward $70,000.

Long-term conviction remains intact, but short-term volatility favors patience. Dollar-cost averaging remains the optimal strategy.

Our Call:

• Rating: Neutral
• Strategy: DCA for long-term investors
• Range Outlook: $80k–$90k near term

---

Final Thoughts

2025 rewarded thematic positioning, patience, and disciplined risk management. Some names delivered outsized returns, others underperformed—but collectively, this portfolio reflects strong macro awareness and technical timing.

As we move into 2026, selectivity and rotation awareness will matter far more than blind exposure.

More detailed updates and revisions will follow as market conditions evolve.

---

Want to Learn How To Trade Options?

If you want to understand how we identify high-probability options trades, manage risk, and time entries and exits, check out our GAR Capital Options Trading Course.

👉 Enroll here: https://www.gar.capital/options-course/

Learn the framework, strategies, and discipline behind our trades—and apply them to your own portfolio.