Summary
QQQ’s 50-day just crossed above its 200-day moving average — a Golden Cross pattern that has historically triggered strong gains. With a supportive macro backdrop, AI tailwinds, and potential fiscal stimulus on the horizon, we break down how to position in this environment and which names we’re long.
Market Movers
No market movers this week..
📚 Deep Dive 📚
📈 Golden Cross in QQQ - What History Tells Us
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) just flashed a Golden Cross — when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day. This pattern has historically led to strong upside momentum in tech:
+9% average return just 1 month after the cross
+9.2% on average over the next 6 months
+15.9% on average 12 months later
This lines up with previous recoveries — including 2020 and 2022–23 — when QQQ surged double digits in the year following a Golden Cross. With AI leadership, macro tailwinds, and strong liquidity, the setup looks favorable.
Riding the Wave - QQQ Macro + Stock Picks
🔹 Macro Setup (Next 60 Days):
Bias: Stay long equities, especially in Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Banks
Tactics:
📈 Long call options
📉 Sell puts
🔒 Long index futures (S&P 500, Nasdaq)
💣 Short gold & defensives (early July)
🌪️ Short volatility (VIX plays)
If the Fed cuts rates July 30, we pivot:
→ Sell equities, buy gold, defensives, and long the dollar
August–September Outlook: Risk-off digestion as election/tariffs are priced in
💡 Tax Cuts = X-Factor
If Congress passes tax cuts, risk assets could get a liquidity jolt. If not, brace for volatility and “WHOOPS” moments.
🧩 QQQ Core Picks: Context, Trade Logic & Tactical Outlook
MSFT
A fortress name in our 2025 Top 10. OpenAI partnership + potential IPO tailwind = bullish core hold.NVDA
New ATHs confirm its leadership. Still top-tier in our book. Semiconductors = the rails of the AI revolution.AAPL
Stability over sizzle. Think of it as the P&G of tech — slow and steady, great cash flow, but not your AI darling (yet).AMZN
AWS + ecommerce + logistics. Watching valuation and CapEx — still bullish if rates ease and AWS stays strong.AVGO
Quiet AI giant. Chip cycle breakout. Riding high with NVDA — a sleeper outperformer.
🔎 Bringing It All Together
Macro Thesis: Golden Cross + strong tech + potential tax cut = bullish risk-on positioning
Our Strategy: Long equities, short VIX, and riding the megacap wave
Stocks in Focus: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, AVGO - the power players of QQQ