How Markets React to Global Crises: S&P 500 Trends After Geopolitical Shocks

Markets may panic at the headlines, but history tells a different story. This macro deep dive from GAR Capital analyzes how the S&P 500 has performed after 5 major geopolitical shocks — from Iran’s missile strikes to the Russia-Ukraine war. Spoiler: fear rarely wins. Focus on liquidity, earnings, and positioning — not panic.

📰 Macro Edge: Crisis, Chaos… Then Clarity

“It’s not the headline — it’s the follow-through.” – Carlos G.

Every time a geopolitical shock hits the tape — whether it’s missiles, bombs, or some saber-rattling headline — financial media jumps to one conclusion: The market is doomed.

But here’s the reality 👇

📈 History shows that markets tend to recover quickly — and even thrive — after global shock events. Let’s break down the S&P 500’s performance after 5 major geopolitical moments.

📍 1. Iran Missile & Drone Attack on Israel 🗓️ April 13, 2024 • 1 Month: +2.4% • 3 Months: +6.1% • 6 Months: +7.3% • 12 Months: TBD (but off to a strong start)

🔥 Takeaway: Despite the dramatic headlines, markets rallied. The key? Forward-looking behavior. Liquidity > noise.

📍 2. Hamas Attacks Israel 🗓️ October 7, 2023 • 1 Month: +1.3% • 3 Months: +10.2% • 6 Months: +20.9% • 12 Months: +3.3%

🔥 Takeaway: This was a monster rally 6 months later. Another reminder: fear doesn’t drive long-term price.

📍 3. Russia Invades Ukraine 🗓️ February 24, 2022 • 1 Month: +3.2% • 3 Months: -3.6% • 6 Months: +0.4% • 12 Months: -8.3%

🔥 Takeaway: Inflation + rate hikes weighed on returns — not just war headlines. Always zoom out for context.

📍 4. U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan 🗓️ August 30, 2021 • 1 Month: -0.1% • 3 Months: +2.8% • 6 Months: -4.2% • 12 Months: -12.0%

🔥 Takeaway: When geopolitical events overlap with Fed tightening, the pressure is higher — but that’s macro, not military.

📍 5. Iranian General Killed in U.S. Airstrike 🗓️ January 3, 2020 • 1 Month: -0.1% • 3 Months: +5.4% • 6 Months: +19.6% • 12 Months: +16.3%

🔥 Takeaway: Even military escalation didn’t stop a bullish market when liquidity was flowing. Fear lost again.

🧠 Zooming Out: Historical Stats (1950–2024) • 📊 Average 1-Month Return Post-Event: +0.7% • 📊 Average 12-Month Return Post-Event: +9.0% • 📈 % of Events with Positive 12-Month Return: 73.6%

💬 Final Word from Carlos: “There’s always a new ‘crisis’ — but charts show what really matters: 📌 Liquidity. 📌 Earnings. 📌 Positioning.

Focus on trend, not trauma. Stay long when it’s smart. Get tactical when needed. But above all: don’t let fear drive your portfolio.”

🚨 GAR Capital | Your Eyes on the Tape 📈 Chart clarity. Risk-ready. Always prepared.