Market Recap: Nasdaq Rebounds, Gold Breaks Out, and Yield Curve Steepens Amid Dollar Slide

📊 Market Recap: Intraday Turnaround, Yield Moves, and a Gold Breakout

Today’s session was one of those that started with doubt and ended with relief—but not without some confusion, noise, and real-time catalysts in between.

Let’s walk it through:

📉 Early Selling, Late Strength

The market opened soft—overnight weakness carried into the morning with early selling across all three sessions: Asia, Europe, and the U.S. The tape looked heavy.

But then around 10:30 AM ET, things flipped. We saw a clear intraday low and a grind higher that gained steam into the close.

The Nasdaq led the rebound, while the Dow limped back into the green by the end of the day.

• Bloomberg noted another short squeeze triggered shortly after the initial morning panic.

• The Mag7 stocks (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, etc.) were once again the MVPs, lifting the S&P despite weakness in the rest of the 493.

📈 Yields Up, Curve Steepening

Treasuries sold off, especially on the long end of the curve.

• Selling pressure hit all major open windows (Asia, Europe, and US).

• Bloomberg also noted a sharp drop in 2025 rate cut expectations, while 2026 cut expectations increased.

The curve steepening is creating short-term VIX risk, but over the next 12 months we could see a return to a more normalized yield curve, easing volatility metrics overall.

💱 Dollar Weakness + Gold Strength

• The U.S. dollar hit a fresh cycle low—its weakest level since July 2023.

• That helped gold break out of its downtrend channel, surging on the day.

Gold has been coiling for a move and today was the technical breakout traders were watching for.

🛢️ Oil: Geopolitics vs Supply Threats

Oil spiked earlier in the session as geopolitical risk premium returned—following Ukraine’s strike on Russian military aircraft. But those gains faded fast.

• Later headlines suggested Trump may allow Iran to enrich uranium, which would increase supply—and oil pulled back on the news.

This type of headline-driven chop has defined the energy complex for weeks. We stay nimble and wait for cleaner setups.

🌐 China Trade Chatter + ISM Wobble

The China trade headlines are getting messier by the day, and that uncertainty is starting to bleed into sentiment.

Meanwhile, a soft ISM print with elevated inflation components reversed the recent trend of improving macro data.
That combo—confusing policy + soft economic tone—is part of why the open was heavy.

💸 Bitcoin: Still Range-Bound

Bitcoin stayed stuck in its range—$104K support holding for now.

Bloomberg hinted at the possibility of a new leg higher toward $200K, but for now, this is just sideways price action with ETF inflows keeping it afloat.

⚠️ VIX Watch

• Volatility expectations are creeping higher.

• Bloomberg reports that a VIX surge is possible if the yield curve keeps lagging, though it’s also projected to normalize over the next 12 months.

If we see unexpected macro weakness or headline risk from overseas, the VIX could spike fast. But for now, it’s a watchlist item, not a red flag.
*

✅ Bottom Line

• Nasdaq continues to be the strength leader
• Gold broke out; oil reversed
• Dollar weakness = tailwind for commodities
• Rates are climbing but curve steepening suggests normalization
• Volatility creeping, but no panic yet

It’s still a trader’s market. Stay tactical, follow the levels, and don’t let the noise shake you from your plan.

Cheers,
Carlos G
GAR Capital

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