Summary
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) just posted one of its strongest quarters ever, delivering record revenue, higher guidance, and major AI-driven growth across U.S. commercial and government contracts. Despite the stellar results, famed investor Michael Burry revealed a massive short position via put options — creating a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment. This sets the stage for one of the most polarizing AI trades of 2025.
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📚 Deep Dive 📚
🚨 Palantir Shocks Wall Street with Blowout Quarter — But Michael Burry Has Other Plans
Palantir Earnings Q3 2025 Recap
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) just delivered one of its strongest earnings reports yet — and it’s rewriting its 2025 playbook in the process.
After hours, shares initially jumped 3–5% as the AI-driven data analytics powerhouse smashed expectations, but momentum faded once news surfaced that Michael Burry — the legendary contrarian behind The Big Short — is reportedly holding large put options on Palantir. The stock has since slipped about 1% in after-hours trading, leaving traders wondering: is this a sell-the-news event or the setup for the next AI run?
🔍 Key Numbers That Moved the Tape
- Revenue: $1.18 billion for Q3, up 63% year-over-year.
- Adjusted EPS: $0.21 vs. estimates of $0.17 — a clear beat.
- U.S. Commercial Revenue: $397 million, up 121% YoY.
- U.S. Government Revenue: $486 million, up 52% YoY.
- Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Raised to $4.396–$4.400 billion in revenue and $2.151–$2.155 billion in adjusted operating income.
- Q4 Revenue Forecast: $1.327–$1.331 billion, implying about 61% YoY growth.
⚙️ What’s Fueling the Growth
Palantir’s commercial business is accelerating rapidly, moving beyond its traditional government-contract roots.
- The company’s AI Platform (AIP) continues to drive adoption across sectors.
- U.S. Commercial segment growth of 121% underscores strong enterprise traction.
- Adjusted operating margins reached 51%, showing improving profitability.
- Backlog and deal commitments are up sharply, with multi-year contract momentum.
📊 The Next Quarter: Big Test Ahead
If Palantir hits its Q4 guidance, it will mark another record quarter and could trigger the next leg of its multi-year turnaround.
The key focus heading into Q4 will be continued commercial adoption, margin expansion, and new government contract wins.
💭 The Short Idea: Michael Burry’s Bet
According to regulatory filings and media reports, Michael Burry’s hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, has acquired roughly 5 million put options on Palantir — valued at around $912 million in notional exposure.
The exact strike prices and expirations remain undisclosed, but the move signals that one of Wall Street’s most famous contrarians sees potential downside or overvaluation in the name.
While Burry’s short doesn’t necessarily mean the stock will collapse, it highlights growing skepticism toward high-valuation AI plays after a year of huge rallies.
🔍 What This Means for Traders & Investors
For the Bulls:
- Palantir continues to deliver strong top-line growth and margin expansion.
- Raised guidance suggests confidence in their AI and government pipelines.
- Sustained momentum could fuel another upside breakout if sentiment turns.
For the Bears:
- Valuation remains elevated relative to peers.
- Growth expectations are already priced in — any slowdown could pressure shares.
- Burry’s bearish positioning adds a layer of short-term headline risk.
📝 Summary
Palantir’s Q3 2025 performance was undeniably strong — record revenue growth, expanding margins, and raised full-year guidance.
But as expectations soar, the margin for error narrows. With Michael Burry betting against the stock, the tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment is intensifying.
This clash of bullish execution versus bearish skepticism makes Palantir one of the most closely watched — and most volatile — AI trades heading into 2026.