🟢 I’m Calling the Bottom — Stocks 2025 Edition

Every market cycle has its moment — and I believe we just saw it.

October has a history of marking major turning points. From 1987 to 2008 to 2022, when fear peaks, bottoms form. And here we are again — sentiment washed out, volatility elevated, and fundamentals quietly shifting in the bulls’ favor.

---

🧩 Why This Looks Like the Bottom

1️⃣ Seasonality:
October has statistically been the month of capitulation and reversal. Historically, major market lows cluster here — the setup is eerily familiar.

2️⃣ Tax Cuts:
The upcoming tax cuts act as direct liquidity injections into the economy. More cash flow = more capital chasing assets. Historically, those cycles last 18–24 months (think Reagan and Bush).

3️⃣ Fed Easing Cycle:
Lower rates are gasoline on speculative fire. Liquidity drives risk-on behavior, and speculative assets benefit first.

4️⃣ The Government Shutdown (the cynical truth):
Let’s be honest — there’s zero incentive to reopen quickly. A shutdown buys time, delays potentially ugly data, and conveniently keeps inflation or weak jobs prints off the headlines. Meanwhile, the market rallies on less macro interference.

---

🎯 What to Focus On

This isn’t a green light to blindly buy everything that moves. It’s time to get selective and stick to four key pillars:

1️⃣ Profitability: Real companies, real earnings.
2️⃣ Growth vs. Cash Flow:
 • Growth = Tech, Cyclicals.
 • Cash Flow = Dividends, Stability.
3️⃣ Buybacks: Follow the money — companies that invest in themselves.
4️⃣ Balance Sheets: Survivors only. Can they weather a liquidity crunch or macro shock?

---

⚖️ The Reality

Yes, stocks are still expensive relative to history. But markets don’t trade on “cheap” — they trade on better than feared.

I’m not calling for euphoria — just acknowledging what the data and behavior suggest:
👉 2025 is the start of the next leg higher.

Enjoy the ride, stay disciplined, and remember — 2026 and beyond, we’ll plan that chapter when we get there.

— Carlos Garcia