Summer Peak Playbook: Why Mid-July Often Marks a Market Top

The S&P 500 just hit new highs, but historical data shows that mid-July often acts as a seasonal top before volatility kicks in. From 1990 to 2023, markets have repeatedly peaked around July 15–20 - followed by sharp pullbacks, corrections, or even bear markets. GAR Capital outlines the historical pattern, key reasons behind the moves, and actionable risk-management steps for traders. It's not about panic — it’s about preparation. As always, discipline beats prediction.

📉 The Summer Peak Is Near – History Says: Be Ready

The S&P 500 just notched another all-time high — and the vibe across markets is euphoric. But beneath the surface, seasonality and history are flashing yellow lights.

We’re now entering the mid-July window (July 15–20) — a historically significant timeframe where markets tend to peak before late-summer turbulence.

This lines up perfectly with the 90-day macro playbook we posted in April. And now, it’s playing out.

📚 Historical Mid-July Peaks - The Pattern Is Real:

Take a look at these past years where the S&P 500 topped in mid-July, followed by pullbacks or full corrections:

2023 — July 19 peak

→ Peaked at 4,589, dropped -5.5% into August

2021 — July 19 peak

→ Brief pullback, resumed higher by September

2019 — July 15 peak

→ Peaked near 3,014, fell -6.4% into early August

2017 — July 19 peak

→ Sideways August, resumed higher in September

2015 — July 20 peak

→ Peaked at 2,132, dropped -12% into August 24 flash crash

2011 — July 22 peak

→ Peaked at 1,345, dropped -18% by August 8 (U.S. downgrade)

2007 — July 19 peak

→ Peaked at 1,553, marked start of bear market

1998 — July 20 peak

→ Peaked at 1,187, dropped -19% by early October (LTCM crisis)

1990 — July 16 peak

→ Peaked at 369, dropped -20% by October (Gulf War)

🧠 Why It Happens:

• Earnings optimism peaks early, especially for Big Tech • Thin summer volume = increased volatility • Macro headwinds resurface (rates, inflation, geopolitics) • Hedge funds de-risk after front-running Q2 results

⚠️ Actionable Steps for Our Clients:

We’re not saying the bull market is over — we’re saying:

📍 Don’t be the last one holding the bag.

Start gradually:

• Reducing risk • Tightening stops • Trimming extended positions into strength

Don’t wait for headlines - seasonality is your early warning system.

We’ll continue to:

• Monitor price action live • Update key levels daily • Provide trade setups if opportunity shifts

📆 Timing Is Everything.

History doesn’t always repeat - but in this case, it’s rhyming hard.

Let’s stay sharp, stay disciplined, and protect profits like pros. “Discipline > Prediction”“Discipline > Prediction”