In this Sunday Edition of the GAR Capital newsletter, we analyze Apple and Amazon’s latest earnings. Despite strong top-line numbers, concerns around tariffs, AI delays, and future guidance led to contrasting market reactions. We share how we traded it — including a +60% win on AAPL puts and a bounce play on AMZN calls — and outline key levels to watch heading into the week.

📬 GAR Capital Newsletter – Post-Earnings Breakdown: AAPL vs AMZN

August 1, 2025

Alright team — time to break down two of the most important earnings this week: Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). Both delivered strong headline numbers, but the price action told two very different stories. Let’s go deeper.

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🍎 Apple (AAPL) – “Good quarter, bad setup.”

Apple reported a solid beat:

• Revenue: $94.04B (+10% YoY)
• EPS: $1.57 vs $1.43 est (+12% YoY)
• iPhone Sales: $44.58B (+13%)
• Services Revenue: $27.42B – an all-time high
• Mac Sales: +15% YoY

So why the drop?
Here’s what the bulls aren’t talking about:

• Tim Cook confirmed $800M in Q3 tariff costs, guiding $1.1B for Q4. That’s a serious drag.
• Cook admitted much of the demand was “pull-forward” ahead of tariffs — not sustainable.
• Apple is lagging in AI — internal memos say the Siri overhaul is delayed into 2026. Now they’re “open to AI acquisitions” just to catch up to OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft.
• Even with this big quarter, the stock carries a mid-30s P/E — pricey, especially if growth slows.

✅ Trade context:
We already hit +60% on our $200 puts with the Masterclass crew. Still holding a short bias, eyeing $185 as the next key support level. Solid quarter or not — valuation, tariffs, and AI delays keep us bearish near term.

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📦 Amazon (AMZN) – “Strong beat, cloud caution, bounce trade in motion.”

Amazon also beat across the board:

• Revenue: $167.7B (+13% YoY)
• EPS: $1.68 vs $1.32 est
• Operating Income: $19.2B (+31%)
• AWS: $30.9B (+17.5%)
• Ad Revenue: $15.7B (+22%)

So why the selloff?

• Q3 operating income guide came in light: $15.5–20.5B vs ~$19.4B expected
• AWS growth is lagging peers — Azure grew 39%, Google Cloud 32%. Big red flag.
• Still, Jassy emphasized long-term AI plays: Alexa+, DeepFleet, Bedrock, Kuiper — saying it’s still early in the AI cycle.
• Prime Day crushed expectations, and Project Kuiper is setting up to rival Starlink.

✅ Trade context:
We bought calls into the post-earnings dip looking for a bounce. The stock is sitting at the 50-day moving average, which we’re treating as a pivot. If it holds, we expect upside as selling cools and focus returns to Amazon’s growth.

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🎯 Summary & Positioning

• AAPL: Great quarter, but priced for perfection. Tariffs + lagging AI = strong short case. Already booked +60% profit on puts with the options team, still targeting $185.
• AMZN: Earnings were solid. Guidance and AWS concerns caused a dip — we bought the weakness on Friday with calls. Bounce trade in motion, not a long-term hold (yet).

We’re staying nimble, trading the setups, and staying ahead of the curve — just how we do it at GAR.

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How did GAR do last month?

Check out our article on our July Options Trading Return Here: GAR Capital's July Options Breakdown

Also checkout our 91% win rate with Masterclass! Our July results here: Masterclass Report 91% Win Rate Massive Wins in July

Trophy Room shots:

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📣 Questions? Drop them in #💬│options-chat or DM me directly.

Let’s keep executing.
– Carlos G.