Summary
The S&P 500 surged +6.2% in May, and GAR Capital outperformed with +22.9% in options and +20.7% in futures. From HIMS and HOOD buys to breakout futures trades, we stayed disciplined and delivered. June now sets the stage for what could be a summer breakout.
Market Movers
No market movers this week..
📚 Deep Dive 📚
📆 Sunday Read: May 2025 Market Recap & Outlook
“Resilience, recovery, and readiness—May gave us all three.”
📈 S&P 500: A V-Shaped Bounce That Proved Doubters Wrong
The S&P 500 closed May up +6.2%, despite a choppy final stretch to end the month. Believe it or not, the index is green on the year—a true V-shaped recovery that few expected, and even fewer traded perfectly.
Personally? I had my doubts. Not because I’m a pessimist, but because I try not to be naive either. The 2022 analog was still flashing caution in the background. But the data told another story: a resilient jobs market, seasonally soft—but expected—retail numbers, and a market that absorbed tariffs and policy uncertainty without flinching.
In short, 2025 has been the year of resilience.
This bounce reminds me of April 2020 post-COVID, when everyone was doubting the rally and yet the market kept climbing.
With that being said - here are a few articles we shared about dip buying from Anthony's perspective along with his thesis which PAID out and many members followed from our Investing Club - Did PLTR $75 Mark the Bottom? on March 24, and Bear Market Inevitable? How to Trade It from April 6, and Trump Hits Pause - Traders hit Play as Nasdaq Sparks Second Best Day Ever from April 9, and the famous TSLA Earnings Hits a Speed Bump - Time to Hit Buy? from April 23rd. Nailed them all!
Investment Club dip buys:
HIMS Dip buy:
DJT with his Famous post before pausing tariffs marking he bottom of the bear market:
🤔 What If You Missed the Bottom?
Let’s be honest—plenty of traders missed the bottom. But that’s not the end of the story.
In life, pain often equals opportunity. The market doesn’t go up in a straight line. We’ll get more pullbacks, corrections, even crashes eventually. But unless we get a black swan event—think world war, nuclear strike, or another pandemic—the 2025 lows for the S&P are likely in.
So what now?
If you’re a long-term investor: you could’ve been in a coma the last 90 days and your retirement portfolio would be fine. That’s your lesson in patience and the power of dollar-cost averaging.
For active traders: watch S&P 500 at 5000. That’s my support level. You can call it the “Trump put” or the Q1 2024 floor. It also aligns with prior key levels on the chart. We never tested the 200-week moving average, which I thought we would—that would’ve matched the 2022 pattern perfectly. But the market had other plans. For now the 200 day moving average to me has been a strong guide of a trend. As long as we stay above there, the market over time will be just fine. Barring any black swan events. Historically speaking this analog is more in line with the 1997 bull market than a COVID 2020 recovery market with 0% rates and a lock down economy.
💵 Earnings, Rotation, and Valuations
Corporate earnings weren’t perfect—but they were good enough. And that’s what this market needed.
We’re seeing ETF outflows and single-stock inflows, which could point to a shift in appetite—traders getting more active, looking for alpha. Bullish signal.
• NVDA beat earnings (even with China weakness) • The post-earnings pop faded quickly—profit-taking • PLTR huge bounce too, trading at a higher PE than pre-earnings • Headlines like the government database contract are fueling the move
But let’s be real—valuations are stretched across the board at least historically speaking around the 87% percentile in PE according to Goldman Sachs
🏦 Rates, Inflation & the Fed
The 30-year fixed mortgage is now sitting at 7%—painful for housing and consumer credit.
The White House wants rate cuts, and Friday’s PCE print came in cooler than expected, which helps the case.
My call:
- 🔹 25 bps cut in July — assuming inflation continues softening
- 🔹 WTI crude oil at $60 is another sign energy costs are easing
The Fed will move—but only when the data gives them no choice. Regardless of what the White House wants. The concern is still the jobs market, as any cracks due to DOGE cuts (if any) might give the nudge to the Fed to cut rates quicker.
So How did GAR Do In May?
While markets bounced around major macro headlines and volatility, GAR Capital stayed consistent and disciplined — and it paid off.
For the Month of May:
📈 Options Trading delivered a +22.9% return with massive trades across PLTR, AMD, TSLA, NVDA, and more
📊 Futures Trading closed the month with a +20.7% return, outperforming ES, NQ, Gold, and even Bitcoin
✅ Win rates remained strong across both rooms, supported by breakout and technical setups
🧠 Investing Club added long positions in HIMS, HOOD, after buying the dip into AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, and PLTR from April’s bear market
Another green month is in the books — powered by structure, strategy, and community. You can read more on futures here - GAR Futures May Recap and Options - GAR Options May Recap. We are ready for June!
Futures Journal Snapshot of May:
Options Journal Snapshot of May:
Members/Students Gains in May:
📌 Bottom Line: What’s Next?
The market is hungry for a positive catalyst:
- Tax cut passage – Instant liquidity jolt
- Fed rate cut – Slower effect, but fuels risk
- Trade deal or tone-down – Helps sentiment, boosts EM & high beta
I expect chop in early June, but strength into July as one of these catalysts likely gets priced in.
⛰️ S&P 500 all-time highs in July? I think so.
After that—August, September, and October become profit-taking zones. Historically weaker months, and a chance to de-risk if we’re flying high.
"For now, we stay tactical. Eyes on levels. Prepared for any scenario. Let’s remain patient, poised, and ready to strike. Cheers and happy trading, — Carlos G GAR Capital"
🚀 Ready to Make June Your Breakout Month?
You’ve seen the results. May was another winning month across the board. Futures has not had a losing week/month this year. Investment club has made some dip buys and is just getting warmed up.
✅ If you're serious about elevating your trading game…
✅ If you're ready to follow real setups with real results…
✅ If you're tired of going at it alone…
Spring into action and join us today. Let’s make June a great month!