Summary
Carlos G breaks down everything traders need to know for the week of July 15, 2025. With earnings season officially underway, we’re watching JPM, Citigroup, TSM, and NFLX — plus big macro catalysts like CPI, Retail Sales, and Trump’s new tariffs. S&P 500 futures hover near breakout levels, but risk remains. This is a week for patient setups, macro awareness, and precision trading. Plus: final call for 50% off the Masterclass with Lifetime Access before July 31.
Market Movers
- 📈 US CPI : Jul 15, 2025
- 📈 US PPI: Jul 16, 2025
- 📈 US Retail Sales: Jul 17, 2025
📚 Deep Dive 📚
📈 Weekly Market Preview & Recap
Hey traders, Carlos here. I’m currently out of the country, so no YouTube video this week—but you already know I wouldn’t leave you hanging. Here’s your full weekly breakdown, categorized and ready to go:
🏦 EARNINGS WATCH:
Earnings season is officially kicking off—and the banks are leading the charge.
• Tuesday morning, we hear from JPM, C, and WFC. These names have been on fire since the Fed stress tests and the tax cut passage.
• C (Citigroup) still looks great on the chart. We’ve traded it before and profited. Now, we’re watching for a breakout continuation above $82.
• I expect a bit of profit-taking post-earnings, but this sector isn’t done. The smart play here is patience, especially early in the week. If we see big call volume Monday, I’ll consider trading setups—but nothing forced.
Other big names:
• TSM reports premarket Thursday – I like this one for continuation. Prefer calls on a retest of the 220 breakout.
• NFLX also reports Thursday – but stock and options are pricey. If you want exposure, use a proxy like DIS or QQQ calls.
🧭 MACRO OUTLOOK:
While earnings are heating up, macro still matters—especially this week.
• CPI data hits Tuesday morning:
• Forecast is 2.6% YoY, up from 2.4%.
• A sub-2% print could ignite serious momentum and increase chances of a July rate cut.
• A hotter print could lead to some market tantrums—especially if we move back toward sticky inflation territory.
• Retail Sales (Thursday):
• Forecast is +0.2% (prior was -0.9%).
• This data reflects June, so no Prime Day boost yet. Still, markets will want to see signs of a consumer bounce.
• NEW TARIFFS just announced:
• President Trump is slapping a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods, effective August 1.
• That could create volatility when futures open at 6PM EST tonight.
• Don’t force any early trades tonight—tariff headlines are fluid. Wait for confirmation.
• Fed watch:
• Market still sees a cut coming.
• July cut is possible, but September more likely if CPI is as expected.
🔎 S&P 500 FUTURES (ES):
We’re still watching that 6340 level for a potential breakout to the upside. Momentum has stalled a bit—we’re overbought, and some backfilling wouldn’t shock me.
However, July seasonality is strong. According to the Stock Market Almanac, watch for bullish flows on:
• Monday July 14
• Thursday July 17
• Friday July 18 (Triple Witching)
🎯 CLOSING THOUGHTS:
No need to play hero into macro risk and earnings season kickoff. We’re positioning for continuation trades with discipline and selectivity.
This week is about patience, data, and reaction—not prediction.
Let’s stay sharp and pick our spots. If the market gives us that 6340 level or CPI misses to the downside, we’ll be ready to attack.
Talk soon & good luck out there, see you on the trading floor! – Carlos | GAR Capital
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