The Sunday Edition – Market Recap from GAR Capital

GAR Capital locked in big wins on HIMS, PLTR, and Gold, while mega-cap names like Tesla led the tech sector. All eyes now turn to next week’s key economic releases.

GAR Capital Sunday Edition Newsletter – May 11, 2025

Markets treaded water this week, holding onto gains from April’s lows while digesting a wave of macro risks, earnings surprises, and policy shifts. Here's what moved the markets:

📊 Market Snapshot

Equities: Slightly lower for the week, but still well off April’s bottom. Earnings: Q1 2025 earnings season is beating expectations, with broad-based upside EPS surprises.

Commodities & Crypto this Week:

• US OIL +9.63%
• ETH +30%
• BTC +9.57%
• GOLD +2.84%

📈 Top U.S. Stock Gainers This Week

• Hims & Hers Health HIMS : Shares surged approximately 24% over the week, closing at $51.96 on May 9, 2025. The rally was fueled by a 111% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, reaching $586 million, and a 38% rise in subscribers to 2.4 million.
• Insulet Corporation PODD: The stock jumped 20.9% after reporting a 67% EPS growth and raising its annual guidance, driven by strong international adoption of its Omnipod 5 insulin pump.
• Halozyme Therapeutics HALO : Shares climbed 18.1% following strong Q1 earnings and an upgraded forecast, propelled by its Enhanze drug-delivery technology and robust product pipeline.
• Axon Enterprise AXON : The company saw its stock rise due to beating profit and sales forecasts and raising its guidance, thanks to high demand for its AI policing technologies.

Investor sentiment took a hit as uncertainty resurfaced around the White House’s evolving trade stance, particularly with the UK and China. Inconsistent policy signals are dampening global risk appetite as trade negotiations remain fluid and fragile. UPDATE: US and China wrapped up Saturday meetings in Geneva with positive comments after, second meeting is scheduled for today Sunday.

🧠 Goldman’s Oppenheimer: “This Rally Isn’t Built to Last”

Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer issued a warning that the current rally lacks strong fundamental backing, noting valuations appear stretched relative to the opportunity set.

🏦 Macro View: Recession Risk Still Elevated

U.S. recession probability remains near 45%, casting a shadow over Fed pivot hopes. With yields staying firm and growth data mixed, traders remain cautious heading into a key economic data week.

📉 Fear & Greed: Sentiment Flips Fast

The market's mood has shifted dramatically — the Fear & Greed Index now reads 62 (Greed), a sharp rebound from just a month ago when it sat in Extreme Fear (12). As risk appetite returns and equity flows pick up, it’s clear sentiment is chasing price. But in times like this, discipline matters most — greed often shows up right before the next big test, but will we see Extreme Greed first?

🗓️ The Week Ahead: April Data in Focus

Investors will closely watch a slew of economic reports that could set the tone for summer:

• Inflation: April CPI & PPI
• Consumer Health: Retail Sales, UMich Confidence, NFIB Small Business Index
• Housing: Housing Starts, NAHB Index
• Activity & Sentiment: Industrial Production, Empire State & Philly Fed Surveys

Economic Data via ForexFactory.com

A surprise in any of these could jolt both equities and rates.

⚠️ Pundit Noise Gets Louder

Despite the market’s relative calm, the talking heads are back in full force. Warnings of a consumer collapse, runaway stagflation, or even a Great Depression-style crash are making the rounds again. But here’s the thing: maybe the neck ties are just late to the party.

🎯 So How Did GAR Do This Week?

It was a strong week of trading across the board for GAR Capital members. Here’s a quick look at some of our key trades:

📈 Options

✅ TSLA 5/9 $300 Calls +50%

✅ HIMS 5/16 $50 Calls +40%, Runner +200%

✅ AAPL 5/16 $190 Puts +40%

✅ NVDA 5/9 $119 Calls +60%

✅ UAL 5/16 $80 Calls +45%, Runner +120%

✅ PLTR 5/16 $45 Calls +45%

📈 Futures

📊 Total Trades This Week: 8

✅❌ Win/Loss: 6 wins / 2 losses

💰 Total Locked Profit: +$2,625 (using 5 micro contracts per trade)

🎯 Win Rate: 75%

🏦 Tickers Traded: S&P 500 (MES) & Gold (GC)

Read more in our Futures Weekly Recap and Options Weekly Recap

✅ Bottom Line

Markets remain resilient — for now — but the tone is increasingly data-driven. With key May reports due and geopolitical risks simmering, buckle up for more volatility as Wall Street reassesses its next move. See you all on the trading floor! - Carlos G.

🚨 Heads-Up: Price Increases Coming June 1st!🚨 As GAR Capital continues to grow, so does the support needed to serve our amazing community. Starting June 1st, we’ll be adjusting our pricing across all services.

💡 Lock in your rate now and take advantage of any current deals — because once June hits, the new pricing will take effect.

✅ If you’re a Masterclass or Lifetime member, you’re all set. This change does not affect you. ✅ If you’re on month-to-month, your rate stays the same as long as you stay active. Cancel and return later? You’ll be subject to the new rate.

🔥 Looking for the best value? Go Lifetime Legacy Membership — get access to all our trade entries and exits across options, futures, and stocks, plus full Discord perks.

💥 Use code GARFOREVER for -40% OFF now — before prices go up in June!